this year is expected to remain in the same neighborhood as last year, but down slightly due to an anticipated contraction in collateralized loan obligation (CLO) issuance. economy remains strong, with a solid labor market. Source: S&P Global Ratings, Bloomberg, LCD, and Commercial Mortgage Alert.Īlthough GDP growth is slowing, the U.S. RMBS-Residential mortgage-backed securities. CMBS-Commercial mortgage-backed securities. (i)We reserve the right to periodically revise these numbers retroactively as new information arises. The table below summarizes our issuance projections relative to the volumes of the past five years.ĪPPROXIMATE GLOBAL NEW ISSUE TOTAL (bil. On the credit side, we generally expect stability, albeit with pockets of weakness in some sectors and regions (see "When The Cycle Turns: How Would Global Structured Finance Fare In A Downturn," Sept. As such, we expect 2020 issuance volume to remain in the $1 trillion neighborhood, with all covered countries/regions posting totals close to their 2019 volumes. That said, our baseline view is still for global macroeconomic growth and relatively low (historically speaking) interest rates. Some factors that could have knock-on effects for structured finance credit and issuance are global trade-related tensions, continued Brexit uncertainty, an unforeseen increase in interest rates, and market volatility that negatively affects liquidity. Looking into 2020, our baseline macroeconomic view is broadly neutral, but with risks weighted to the downside-a precarious balance. By country/region, the U.S., China, Australia, and Latin America all printed higher new issue volumes, while Europe, Japan, and Canada were down modestly. Despite concerns over slowing global macroeconomic growth, 2019 was an active year in the structured finance markets, with over $1.1 trillion issued across the globe, up nearly 10% on a year-over-year basis.
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